This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is related to uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from González et al. (2005) is applied with...

This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is affected by uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account joint effects of uncertainty and oil price returns on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from Gonz alez et al. (2005) is applied with univariate...

Recent empirical studies suggest that the negative effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger in recessions than during booms. In this study, I provide a theoretical mechanism that can explain this empirical observation. I start from the argument that the effect of uncertainty on investment...