We model economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the four largest euro area countries by applying machine learning techniques to news articles. The unsupervised machine learning algorithm used makes it possible to retrieve the individual components of overall EPU endogenously for a wide range of...

We model economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the four largest euro area countries by applying machine learning techniques to news articles. The unsupervised machine learning algorithm used makes it possible to retrieve the individual components of overall EPU endogenously for a wide range of...

Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues. In this paper, we construct a news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey and assess how...

I study the role of firms' uncertainty in the transmission of forward guidance to investment. To do so, I employ a quarterly firm-level panel of U.S. publicly traded firms. I measure forward guidance shocks based on unexpected changes in the slope of the yield curve in a 30-minute window around...

We consider the problem of valuing inputs in a production environment in which input supply is uncertain. Inputs can be workers in a firm, risk factors for a disease, securities in a financial market, or nodes in a networked economy. Each input takes its values from a finite set, and uncertainty...

Risks management studies in the agri-food sector predominately focus on the technical methods and the capability to perceive, prevent, mitigate, and recover from diverse risks. In most economic publications the risks are usually studied as other commodity regulated by the market supply and...

Entrepreneurs face higher commercialization costs than incumbents. We show that this implies that entrepreneurs will choose more risky projects than incumbents, aiming to reduce their high expected marginal commercialization cost. However, entrepreneurs may select too safe projects from a social...

Governments, investors, and consumers have stepped up pressure on publicly listed companies to face up to climate risks and to reduce carbon emissions. At the same time, the pressure to deliver financial results remains strong. Based on research on 19 European carbon-intensive corporations in...

We examine the effect of a threat of entry on experimentation about demand by an incumbent monopolist when there is a fixed cost of entry. We also examine the impact of experimentation on the probability of entry into the market. We show that experimentation may itself be used as a tool for...