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-term nominal yields over long horizons. The remaining driver of long-term yields are changes in inflation expectations induced by … conventional, autoregressive shocks. Long-term inflation expectations implied by our model are in line with those based on survey …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009116
setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes … declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we document strong global impacts, making the world move in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243822
We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418859
increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This … suggest that uncertainty is an alternative approach to explain the phenomena previously known as "information shock" and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012542948
We investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and monetary policy transmission in the U.S. economy … through the external finance premium and the term structure of interest rates appears strongly dependent on inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931106
shock. We find that flexible inflation targeting regime using interest rate rules (IRRs) with floating exchange rates is …-DSGE model, we show that inflation targeting regime using exchange rate rules (ERRs) reduces welfare losses significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827002
Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584195
model averaging in policy design. Interestingly, a simple difference rule with the same coefficients on inflation and output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010392194
into account leads to ambiguous effects w.r.t. to the impact of capital as well as inflation risk, thus contradicting …. The results reveal that U.S. households increase their demand for money in response to positive changes in inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010520781
ambiguous effects w.r.t. to the impact of capital market risk as well as inflation risk, which is due to the interplay of … response to positive changes in inflation risk and capital market risk, respectively, with both effects lasting permanently. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011790638