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Observational learning is typically examined when agents have precise information about their position in the sequence … individuals and receive a private signal about the state of the world. We show that social learning is robust to position … uncertainty. Under any sampling rule satisfying a stationarity assumption, learning is complete if signal strength is unbounded …
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We consider dynamic team production in the presence of uncertainty. Team members receive interim feedback that depends on both their current effort level and the project's uncertain prospects. In this environment, each member can encourage the others by making them more optimistic about the...
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A representative consumer uses Bayes' law to learn about parameters of several models and to construct probabilities with which to perform ongoing model averaging. The arrival of signals induces the consumer to alter his posterior distribution over models and parameters. The consumer's...
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Research provides some observations about learning from events that appear to be rare or quite unusual. All learning … has uncertain consequences, but learning from rare events is especially problematic. Learners see many idiosyncrasies and … exogenous interference, tendencies that suppress learning on an organizational scale. Rare events also rouse uncertainty and …
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