We consider a decentralized supply chain in which a downstream manufacturer purchases components from an upstream supplier privileged with private information about supply disruption risk. The supplier's initial reliability, asymmetric to the manufacturer, is either low or high. We examine two...

We provide results for an efficient analytical valuation of partial moments of the multivariate Gaussian distribution over convex polyhedrons to aid the solution, sensitivity analysis and structural analysis of a large number of two-stage resource acquisition and allocation problems. These...

Capacity expansion is the process of providing new facilities over time to meet rising demand. A general mathematical model of this process is presented, incorporating uncertain future demand (including the possibility of 'surprises'), non-zero lead times and random cost overruns. In this model...

We propose a new model formulation for a three-echelon supply network design problem incorporating the concept of relocatable modular capacities. A robust supply network configuration must be determined based on uncertain demand. Furthermore, by incorporating the conditional value at risk...

This paper studies the implications for reserve lifetime and related quantities in a continuous time model of resource extraction under uncertainty. Both the resource price and the extracted amount are assumed to follow stochastic processes. Reserve lifetime is determined by the...

This paper analyzes how ambiguity affects the tournament outcome and the project selection of a multi-business-unit organization. We consider a tournament model where business unit managers compete against each other for a promotion reward but are ambiguous about how relatively well their skills...

In this paper the climate change effect is an unforeseen earth temperature level above which a negative externality on technology and hence on society's welfare is exerted. We use a dynamic overlapping generations model to develop a positive analysis of the growth path of an economy with the...

Realized divergence gauges the distinct realized moments associated with time-varying uncertainty and is tradeable with divergence swaps engineered from delta-hedged option portfolios. Consistently with established notions of symmetry in arbitrage-free option markets, implied divergence...

Greenhouse gas policies confront the trade-off between the costs of reducing emissions and the benefits of avoided climate change. The risk of uncertain and potentially irreversible catastrophes is an important issue related to the latter, and one that has not yet been well incorporated into...

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable...