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. In this paper, various risk models are used to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR) in holding the currency. Being a quantile … measure, VaR disregards valuable information conveyed by the sizes of tail losses. As a result, there is tail risk in the use … of VaR in practice. Saddlepoint technique is used to backtest tail risk of VaR by summing all the tail losses …
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employed to estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) for the two exchange rates, BitCoin/US dollar … (BitCoin) and the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD). The estimated risk measures are used to compare the riskiness of the … significance further confirm the higher risk associated with BitCoin. Model adequacy is confirmed using the Kupiec test procedure …
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