This paper addresses two questions about the morality of warfare: (1) how much risk must soldiers take to minimize unintended civilian casualties caused by their own actions (“collateral damage”), and (2) whether it is the same for the enemy's civilians as for one's own. The questions take...

In 2018, Congress tasked the U.S. Coast Guard with developing a Risk Assessment Model for Maritime Cybersecurity. The Act requires the Coast Guard to consult with the National Maritime Security Advisory Committee in developing the Model. This paper collects relevant background information on the...

In recent years, several U.S. government agencies have pioneered the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies to improve the efficiency and accuracy of their 'responsibility determinations' (reviews of, among other things, contractor representations and certifications,...

Although most empirical studies conclude that uncertainty delays firms' investments based on real options theory, empirical evidence regarding the impact of uncertainty on innovation is mixed. This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate research and development (R&D)...

In our paper, we provide a review of the literature to identify the main transmission channels through which geopolitical risks (GPR) influence m a cro-financial st ab ility. We be gi n by analyzing the existing measures of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, showing that GPR impacts economic...

Emissions control cannot address the consequences of global warming for weather disasters until decades later. We model regional-level mitigation, which reduces aggregate disaster risks to capital stock in the interim. Unexpected disaster arrivals increase belief regarding the adverse...

This paper argues that increases in perceived flood risk entail a negative and persistent shock to local economic activity. Our analysis is based on a rich administrative dataset that contains all business establishments in New York City around the time of hurricane Sandy. Our data also...

This presentation reconsiders Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit of 1921 in light of the emergence of the World Wide Web in early-1990s, Emanuel Derman's pioneering work in Model Risk Management at Goldman Sachs in mid-1990s, backlash against quantitative models in aftermath of the Global...

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al.,1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants'probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating in...

Experimental and field evidence show that people perceive and evaluate new risks differently from risks that are common. In particular, people get used to the presence of certain risks and become less eager to avoid them. We explain this observation by including risks in the reference states of...