Using regionally disaggregated data on economic activity, we show that risk sharing plays a key role in shaping the real effects of monetary policy. With weak risk sharing, monetary policy shocks trigger a strong and durable response in output. With strong risk sharing, the response is...

Systematic model bias has been implicated in the global recession that began in 2007, and this bias can be traced back to assumptions about the normality of data. Nonetheless, the normal distribution continues to play a foundational role in quantitative finance. One reason for this is that the...

Climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy to mitigate it engender significant economic costs. These costs are ultimately borne by households and firms, affecting their cash flows and wealth, which are key determinants of their credit worthiness. Climate-related costs are thus a...

We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call "risk shifts", are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion's share of...