only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only … important for backtesting. We also extend the result to address model uncertainty by incorporating multiple scenarios. As an …

define the individual degree of pessimism as an index measuring probability differences across states. We show that the … tolerance. From this central result, we show how increasing disagreement on the state probability affects the state probability … of the representative agent. We show that the divergence of opinions about the probability of occurrence of a boom may …

distribution story; withdrawal rates are time dependent. • The Probability of Failure (POF), a time independent variable, is more …

rise to uncertainty in the determination of the default probability. We show how this uncertainty can affect the estimation … introduce a model to compute the individual and systemic probability of default in a system of banks connected in a generic …

We use forward-looking and exogenous measures of output price uncertainty to examine the effect of price uncertainty on … firm-level capital investment, risk management, and debt issuance. The effects of uncertainty vary significantly by firm … size. When faced with high price uncertainty, large firms increase their hedging intensity but do not lower capital …

This textbook incorporates the author's previous book "The Economics of Uncertainty and Insurance" and extends it with … hazard. It provides a comprehensive introduction to the analysis of economic decisions under uncertainty and to the role of …

downside price risk than standard expected utility theory. In the profit region of the price distribution, however, regret …