We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...

I analyze the recent experience of unconventional monetary policy in Sweden to study the interest rate transmission mechanisms of government bond purchases when interest rates are not constrained by a lower bound. Using dynamic term structure models and event study regressions I find that...

Long-term interest rates of small open economies correlate strongly with the US long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the US? An estimated DSGE model for the UK (vis-`a-vis the US) establishes three structural empirical results. (1) Comovement arises due to nominal...