We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...

These days it's become convention (reinforced by the media's treatment of wealth) to assess our net worth by tallying up the market value of our financial assets, even though it's more natural and useful to think of our wealth as a stream of dollars over time given the nature of our income and...

The longest bull market in US stock market history is over. Uncertainty over the public health and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic will keep markets extremely volatile, making it likely we'll touch a wide range of price levels in the months ahead. Amidst such uncertainty, it's a...

This paper suggests an empirically attractive Gaussian dynamic term structure model to retrieve estimates of real interest rates and in flation expectations from the nominal term structure of interest rates which are net of in flation risk premium effects. The paper shows that this model is...

We ask whether a pay-as-you-go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk. We show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from joint insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits...

We ask whether a pay-as-you-go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk. We show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from joint insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits...

We propose a novel method to estimate risk-neutral quantiles that uses sorting to minimize an objective function given by a convex combination of call and put option prices over the range of available strike prices. We demonstrate that this new method significantly improves the accuracy of...

Hundreds of studies have always shown that the forward premium is a biased predictor of the future change in the spot exchange rates; they have all tested major currencies with the exception of a recent research that has been undertaken in 2010 by Frankel and Poonawala and which instigates us to...