We present a novel empirical benchmark for analyzing credit risk using “pseudo firms” that purchase traded assets financed with equity and zero-coupon bonds. By no-arbitrage, pseudo bonds are equivalent to Treasuries minus put options on pseudo-firm assets. Empirically, like corporate...

The recent macro-finance yield curve literature does not agree neither about term premia empirical properties nor about the importance or even the direction of its relationship with future economic activity. This paper proposes a two-step approach to handle both problems. First, in a VAR...

This paper develops a DSGE model which explains variation in the nominal and real term structure along with inflation surveys and four macro variables in the UK economy. The model is estimated based on a third-order approximation to allow for time-varying term premia. We find a fall in nominal...

This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by...

We solve a dynamic general equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates,...

This chapter surveys the literature on fixed-income pricing models, including dynamic term-structure models, and interest-rate sensitive, derivative pricing models. Our overview of conceptual approaches highlights the tradeoffs that have emerged between the complexity of the probability model...

This is a survey of the basic theoretical foundations of intertemporal asset pricing theory. The broader theory is first reviewed in a simple discrete-time setting, emphasizing the key role of state prices. The existence of state prices is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage. State prices,...

We introduce the class of linear-rational term structure models in which the state price density is modeled such that bond prices become linear-rational functions of the factors. This class is highly tractable with several distinct advantages: i) ensures nonnegative interest rates, ii) easily...

This study empirically examine the impact of market conditions on credit spreads as motivated by recently developed structural credit risk models. Using credit default swap (CDS) spreads, we find that, in the time series, average credit spreads are decreasing in GDP growth rate, but increasing...