This paper studies the historical time-varying dynamics of risk for individual stocks in the U.S. market. Total risk of an individual stock is decomposed into two components, systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk, and both components are studied separately. We start from the historical trend in...

Based on an empirical analysis of European corporations, we investigate the impact of sovereign risk on the pricing of corporate credit risk. In our paper, we show that sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) are positively correlated with corresponding corporate CDS spreads and are a significant...

This paper investigates how the network of relationships between dealers shapes their trading behavior in the corporate bond market. We show that dealers tend to provide liquidity during periods of distress to the counterparties with whom they have the strongest tie. However, highly connected...

Following the Global Settlement, analysts extensively use a top pick designation to highlight their highest conviction best ideas. Such a designation enables analysts to provide greater granularity of information, but it can potentially be influenced by conflicts of interest. Examining a...

We examine the effect of voluntary climate risk disclosure on Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums. We develop a structural credit risk model, in which climate-related disclosures serve as an information source reducing uncertainty about climate risks. The model predicts a negative relation...

A large set of macroeconomic variables have been suggested as equity risk premium predictors in the literature. This paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month-ahead forecasts are obtained from parsimonious threshold...

Stock market volatility clusters in time, appears fractionally integrated, carries a risk premium, and exhibits asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined by the difference between the risk-neutral and objective expectations of the...

For a comprehensive set of 21 equity premium predictors we find dramatic disagreement between out-of-sample predictability results depending on the choice of the sample split date. To resolve this issue we propose reporting in graphical form the out-of-sample predictability criteria for every...

Stock market volatility clusters in time, appears fractionally integrated, carries a risk premium, and exhibits asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined by the difference between the risk-neutral and objective expectations of the...

We find that augmenting a regression of excess bond returns on the term structure of forward rates with a rolling estimate of the mean realized jump size - identified from high-frequency bond returns using the bi-power variation technique - substantially increases the R2 of the regression. This...