We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...

We use 10-K filings to construct novel text-based measures of the extent to which U.S. firms are exposed to three offshore activities: the sale of output, purchase of input, and ownership of producing assets. Our main result is that selling output abroad is associated with higher stock returns,...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling...

We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates...

This paper develops an international asset-pricing model with defaultable firms and governments that demonstrates how sovereign credit risk in Europe affects US equity market prices. The risk of a sovereign debt crisis is a threat to economic growth that reduces the value of international...

In this paper we derive the measure of position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios from the currency option pricing model. The position-unwinding likelihood indicator is in nature driven by interest rate differential and currency volatility, and highly correlated with global...

I show that volatility risk of the dollar factor --- an equally weighted basket of developed U.S. dollar exchange rates --- carries a significant risk premium and that it is priced in the cross-section of currency volatility excess returns. The dollar factor volatility risk premium is negative...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturityspectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that theforward premium puzzle (FPP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of thefutures contract and the choice of the sampling...