A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …

A large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have … researchers in their analyses. However, risk and uncertainty measures differ across multiple dimensions, including the method of … calculated. Therefore, in this paper, we review the literature on global risk, uncertainty, and volatility measures drawing on …

We propose a consumption-based model that allows for an inverted term structure of real and nominal risk-free rates. In … our framework the agent is subject to time-varying macroeconomic risk and interest rates at all maturities depend on her … risk perception which shape saving propensities over time. In bad times, when risk is perceived to be higher in the short …

historical periods in which uncertainty and risk premia were elevated because of news shocks. … framework, combined with parameter learning, features rich history-dependent uncertainty dynamics. We show that bad news that … greatly amplified when agents have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. We leverage survey recession probability …