We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth are an important feature of the post-war...

The 2007-2008 financial crises has made it painfully obvious that markets may quickly turn illiquid.Moreover, recent experience has shown that distress and lack of active trading can jump “around”between seemingly unconnected parts of the financial system contributing to transforming...

Using high-frequency transaction data for the three largest European markets (France, Germany and Italy), this paper documents the existence of an asymmetric relationship between market liquidity and trading imbalances: when quoted spreads rise (fall) and liquidity falls (increases) buy (sell)...

The paper presents a comprehensive data set of all bonds issued by the sixteen German states (L¨ander) since 1992. It thus provides a complete picture of a capital market comparable in size to funds raised in the German fixed income market for corporations. The quantitative analysis reveals...

This paper looks at the dynamic price relationship between spreads in the corporate bond market and credit default swaps (CDS). It picks up where Blanco et al (2005) leave off but is focused on European credit markets. The study is based on companies listed in the iTraxx CDS index and thus on...

We assess the effect of aggregate stock market illiquidity on U.S. Treasury bond risk premia. We find that the stock market illiquidity variable adds to the well established Cochrane-Piazzesi and Ludvigson-Ng factors. It explains 10%, 9%, 7%, and 7% of the one-year-ahead variation in the excess...

Unsecured interbank money market rates such as the Euribor increased strongly with the start of the financial market turbulences in August 2007. There is clear evidence that these rates reached levels that cannot be explained alone by higher credit risk. This article presents this evidence and...

This paper investigates the role of volatility risk on stock return predictability specified on two global financial crises: the dot-com bubble and recent financial crisis. Using a broad sample of stock options traded at the American Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)...

We examine the informational efficiency of market ambiguity in predicting market excess returns and the equity premium internationally. Empirical results show a strong predictive ability of option-implied, and sentiment-based, ambiguity for U.S. stock market returns for up to three years. We...

The general conclusion of a very large literature on the equity premium puzzle is that the simplest version of the consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) with time-additive, power utility is inconsistent with the data. I show that this conclusion is premature and the simplest version can...