This paper examines time-varying measures of term premiums across ten developed economies. It shows that a single factor accounts for most of the variation in expected excess returns over time, across the maturity spectrum, and across countries. I construct a global return forecasting factor...

Sovereigns are active issuers both of foreign and domestic debt. The former, composed mainly of internationally traded hard currency denominated Eurobonds, serves as a direct benchmark for the creditworthiness of the country. The latter, represented by local treasuries, although considered a...

Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the 'Bund premium' as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign...

This paper examines time-varying measures of term premiums across ten developed economies. It shows that a single factor accounts for most of the variation in expected excess returns over time, across the maturity spectrum, and across countries. I construct a global return forecasting factor...

Long-term interest rates of small open economies correlate strongly with the US long-term rate. Can central banks in those countries decouple from the US? An estimated DSGE model for the UK (vis-`a-vis the US) establishes three structural empirical results. (1) Comovement arises due to nominal...

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in the process of re-inventing itself with bilateral and multilateral surveillance emerging as a key function. The paper analyses how IMF surveillance announcements may be influenced by political power that member countries exert at the IMF. First, we...

Central bank governor changes in emerging markets may convey important signals about future monetary policy. Based on a new daily data set, this paper examines the reactions of foreign exchange markets, domestic stock market indices and sovereign bond spreads to central bank governor changes....

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in the process of re-inventing itself with bilateral and multilateral surveillance emerging as a key function. The paper analyses how IMF surveillance announcements may be influenced by political power that member countries exert at the IMF. First, we...

We present evidence that the growth of U.S.-dollar-denominated banking sector liabilities forecasts appreciations of the U.S. dollar, both in-sample and out-of-sample, against a large set of foreign currencies. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in a global...

Market integration and currency risk are two main factors that distinguish international investment and financing decisions. Hence, we investigate the impact of currency factor on the dynamics of market integration. We compare integration indices estimated from conditional international asset...