types of restrictions are considered: positivity of the regression coefficient and positivity of the forecast. Bagging … bagging. Monte Carlo simulations show that forecast gains can be achieved in realistic sample sizes for the stock return … can improve the forecast performance further by smoothing the restriction through bagging. -- Constraints on predictive …

Common statistical measures of bond risk premia are volatile and countercyclical. This paper uses survey data on … interest rate forecasts to construct subjective bond risk premia. Subjective premia are less volatile and not very cyclical …

further improve the other method's forecasting performance. The performance of using BMA to forecast bond excess return is … model in forecasting one-month-ahead yield curve. We apply BMA to forecast the government bond yield change and indicate BMA …This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government …

This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using … excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve … forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables …

information for forecasting bond risk premia in a macro-finance term structure model from the perspective of a bond investor. I … forecaster's objective. Incorporating macro information generates significant gains in forecasting bond risk premia relative to … yield curve information at long forecast horizons, especially when allowing for time-varying combination weight. These gains …

yields have strong predictive power for bond risk premia, in contrast to the factors based on yield levels. We also provide … insights into the impact this has on the added value of macro data for bond risk premia predictions and the recent conclusion …