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of long-term stock market volatility. When long-term volatility is high, stock returns are more sensitive to news, and …-linear present value framework with a two-component volatility model for the conditional variance of cash flow news and allowing for … volatility feedback. In our model, innovations to the long-term volatility component are the most important driver of discount …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014440865
We show that the pattern of positive pre-announcement market drift is present not only for FOMC announcements, as documented by Lucca and Moench (2015), but also for other major macroeconomic announcements such as Nonfarm Payroll, ISM and GDP. This commonality in pre-announcement returns leads...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850794
A growing body of literature analyses the impact of news on companies' equity prices. We add to this literature by showing that the transmission channel of news to prices differs across sectors. First, we disentangle sectoral equity prices into components of expected future earnings and equity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316963
This study seeks to determine whether earnings announcements pose non-diversifiable volatility risk that commands a … volatility and pay a premium to hedge this non-diversifiable risk. In particular, we find evidence of risk premiums embedded in … announcements pose non-diversifiable volatility risk. In addition, we find that volatility risk premiums are concentrated among …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010205852
. Proposed extensions include a volatility regime switching mechanism (using dummy variables and the Markov approach) and the … fifth risk factor based on realized volatility of index returns. Moreover, instead of using data for stocks of a particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539896
predict future returns, there is a significant relation between volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Portfolio level … the realized-implied volatility spread that can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. The results also provide … evidence for a significantly positive link between expected returns and the call-put options' implied volatility spread that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116882
) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance. We do not claim that those …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392
In this paper, I examine whether stock return dispersion (RD) provides useful information about future stock returns. RD consistently forecasts a decline in the excess market return at multiple horizons, and compares favorably with alternative predictors used in the literature. The out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905752
expected stock return and both the maximum daily return (MAX) and the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) in the five largest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910051
We use learning in an equilibrium model to explain the puzzling predictive power of the volatility risk premium (VRP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892623