Stock market makers are afraid that informed insiders will take advantage of them in trade. To protect themselves, they may increase the bid-offer spread to include a fee for the adverse selection risk . If set correctly, market makers will share in profits from others trading on private...

Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between Merton-type and Black-Cox-type structural default models. Our...

Using political turnovers in mayoral appointments at the prefecture-city level in China, we show that investors incorporate rising local political uncertainty into bond pricing and relocate capital from municipal corporate bonds and privately issued bonds toward bonds issued by centrally...

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the impacts that rare disasters can have on credit markets. We discuss and quantify the asset-pricing implications of disaster risk on the risk-free rate, credit spreads, and their term structures. The findings underscore the heterogeneous effects of...

This paper exploits information contained in cross-sectional PEG ratios to extract estimates of the market's expectations for aggregate returns and economic fundamentals. By combining the loglinear present-valuation model and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) logic, we establish a theoretic...

We provide the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are well-populated, but are unreliable outside the...

We hypothesize that earnings downside risk, capturing the expectation for future downward operating performance, contains distinct information about firm risk and varies with cost of capital in the cross section of firms. Consistent with the validity of the earnings downside risk measure, we...

We construct indices of attention to macroeconomic risks including employment, output growth, and monetary policy. Attention rises around macroeconomic announcements and following changes in fundamentals over quarterly, annual, and business cycle horizons. The effect is asymmetric: Bad news...