In this paper we decompose Turkish Lira interest rates into expected short rate and term premium components, using two well-established methods. Then we focus on the impact of the share of foreign investors on bond yields by instrumenting that share with VIX and Merry Lynch option volatility...

Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates versus term premia? And what are the macroeconomic consequences? Applying an affine term structure model to high-frequency yield curve movements around FOMC announcements, we shed new light on these questions....

Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates vs. term premia? And does it matter for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in...

This paper provides an empirical investigation of monetary policy in Japan in the zero interest rate environment that has held sway since 1999. In particular, we focus on the effects of the zero interest rate commitment and of quantitative monetary easing on medium- to long-term interest rates...

We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. We combine nominal yields with surveys of inflation forecasts within a...

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU government bonds issued between 1993 and 2005 on the basis of a unique dataset of issue spreads in the US and DM (Euro) bond market. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk...

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds ofdifferent maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rateenvironment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and thereforeconsistent with the...

This paper studies the impact of ambiguous information regarding future interest rates on bond prices. A simple bond-pricing model with ambiguity aversion shows that positive bond uncertainty premiums exist, and the interest rate ambiguity affects the term structure of interest rates and yield...

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of equilibrium asset pricing. This paper presents a new equilibrium model of subjective expectations to explain the joint historical dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield...