This paper develops an explicitly stochastic new open economy macroeconomics' model, which can potentially be used to explore the qualitative and quantitative welfare differences between alternative exchange rate regimes. A crucial feature is that we do not simplify by assuming certainty...

This paper develops an explicitly stochastic new open economy macroeconomics' model, which can potentially be used to explore the qualitative and quantitative welfare differences between alternative exchange rate regimes. A crucial feature is that we do not simplify by assuming certainty...

The currency market features a relatively small cross-section and conditional expected returns can be characterized by only a few signals - interest differentials, trend, and mean-reversion. We exploit these properties to construct a conditional projection of the stochastic discount factor onto...