This paper presents new approach to financial modeling and forecasting that is based on economic space notion. Economic space is defined as generalization of risk ratings and allows boost methods and description of financial processes. Risk ratings of economic agents are treated as coordinates...

This paper examines how bilateral economic linkages shape consumption synchronization across economies. Using state-level data from the US, we find that the degree of bilateral consumption risk sharing decreases with geographic distance. To explain this novel fact, we develop an open economy...

We present several fast algorithms for computing the distribution of a sum of spatially dependent, discrete random variables to aggregate catastrophe risk. The algorithms are based on direct and hierarchical copula trees. Computing speed comes from the fact that loss aggregation at branching...