We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and … high mobility in and out of poverty. …

the measurement of poverty is ex post and thus, public interventions are directed at helping those who have been …The reduction of poverty is at the heart of the development agenda both nationally and globally. This is reflected in … identified as poor, the government must broaden the scope of assessments and take account of the dynamics in poverty in public …

household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The results indicate that vulnerability is very sensitive to the time …