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We examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using a GARCH model that allows for … simultaneous feedback between the conditional mean and variance of inflation. We also derive a number of theoretical econometric … results and illustrate the relevance of these results with an empirical example of the US monthly inflation process. Our …
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We find that model estimates of the term structure of ex ante or perceived macro uncertainty are more in line with realized uncertainty than survey respondents perceptions for both in flation and output growth. Survey estimates contain short-term variation in short-horizon uncertainty which is...
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