We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...

We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...

This paper decomposes government spending into its temporary and permanent components using Baker’s et. al. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in a bivariate SVAR setting with long-run constraints, a la Blanchard and Quah (1989). To illustrate the applicability of the bivariate moving average...