We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involving a risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequency for ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates and Bayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We find...

In the present work I derive the risk functions of 5 standard estimators for expected asset returns which are frequently advocated in the literature, viz the sample mean vector, the James-Stein and Bayes-Stein estimator, the minimum-variance estimator, and the CAPM estimator. I resolve the...

Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on international equity markets. We identify this factor as the...

We build a macroeconomic model for Switzerland, the Euro Area, and the USA that drives the dynamics of several asset classes and the liabilities of a representative Swiss (defined-contribution) pension fund. This encompassing approach allows us to generate correlations between returns on assets...

We show how to reduce the problem of computing VaR and CVaR with Student T return distributions to evaluation of analytical functions of the moments. This allows an analysis of the risk properties of systems to be carefully attributed between choices of risk function (e.g. VaR vs CVaR); choice...

Hedge fund managers are subject to several non-linear incentives: (a) performance fee options (call); (b) equity investor's redemption options (put); (c) prime broker contracts allowing for forced deleverage (put). The interaction of these option-like incentives affects optimal leverage ex-ante,...

Though part of “market lore,” Black (1976) first reported the inverse relationship between price and volatility, calling it the “leverage effect.” Without providing evidence, Black (1988) claims that in the months leading up to the October ‘87 Crash the relationship changed: price and...

In this paper, based on Acharya and Pedersen's overlapping generation model, we show that liquidity risk could influence the market risk forecasting through at least two ways. Then we argue that traditional liquidity adjusted VaR measure, the simply adding of the two risk measure, would...

I propose a simple time-series risk measure in trading stock market anomalies, CoAnomaly, the time-varying average pairwise correlation among 34 anomalies, which helps to explain both the time-series and the cross-sectional anomaly return patterns. Since correlations among underlying assets...