We develop a four-factor model intended to capture size, value, and credit rating transition patterns in excess returns for a panel of predominantly mid- and large-cap entities. Using credit transition matrices and rating histories from 48 US issuers, we provide evidence to support a...

We investigate the uncertainty dynamics surrounding extreme weather events through the lens of option and stock markets by identifying market responses to the uncertainty regarding both potential hurricane landfall and subsequent economic impact. Stock options on firms with establishments...

Companies face significant carbon-transition risk as the global economy works to combat climate change. This paper studies the market-based premium associated with the carbon-transition risk globally and finds that firms with more carbon-intense business models earn higher returns in recent...

We study how monetary policy and risk shocks affect asset prices in the US, the euro area, and Japan, differentiating between "traditional" monetary policy and communication events, each decomposed into "pure" and information shocks. Communication shocks from the US spill over to risk in the...

Using textual analysis and comparing cybersecurity-risk disclosures of firms that were hacked to others that were not, we propose a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk for all US-listed firms. We then examine whether cybersecurity risk is priced in the cross-section of stock returns....

Sentiment should exhibit its strongest effects on asset prices at times when valuations are most subjective. Consistent with this hypothesis, we show that a one-standard-deviation increase in aggregate uncertainty amplifies the predictive ability of sentiment for market returns by two to four...

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

We show that the pattern of positive pre-announcement market drift is present not only for FOMC announcements, as documented by Lucca and Moench (2015), but also for other major macroeconomic announcements such as Nonfarm Payroll, ISM and GDP. This commonality in pre-announcement returns leads...

We find that news-based measures of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) negatively forecast momentum. A one standard deviation increase in EPU is associated with a 1.11% decrease in risk-adjusted momentum returns. The predictive power of EPU is robust after controlling for previously documented...

Firms with lower profitability have lower expected returns because such firms perform better than expected when market volatility increases. The better-than-expected performance arises because unprofitable firms are distressed and volatile, their equity resembles a call option on the assets, and...