Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived … macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are … measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time … varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production. The analysis demonstrates that … countercyclical behavior of risk premia on loans to the housing sector. -- Agency costs ; credit channel ; time-varying uncertainty …

This paper aims an empirical investigation of uncertainty in the Euro Zone as well as the US. For this purpose I … conduct a factor analysis of uncertainty measures starting in 2001 until the end of 2011. I use survey-based data provided by … implied volatility of stock market movements. Each measure shows an increase in uncertainty during the last years marked by …

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) agency cost model of business cycles by including time varying uncertainty in … of uncertainty are then analyzed. Our primary findings fall into three broad categories. First, it is demonstrated that … uncertainty affects the level of the steady-state of the economy so that welfare analyses of uncertainty that focus entirely on …

incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making. The sort of post-crisis uncertainty that central banks are dealing with … this burden of coherence means that fundamental uncertainty must be incorporated explicitly into the policy formulation … management, one consequence of which is to inject a little more realism about uncertainty into the policy narrative, while …

Equilibrium model for the euro area. The Bayesian estimation gives a measure of the uncertainty on the parameters, from which we … can derive the uncertainty of the responses to standard shocks. As an illustration, we simulate the effects of a fiscal …

. I find that when real unit labor cost is used as a monetary policy indicator, the potential output uncertainty has …