We examine the effects of estimation risk and Bayesian learning on equilibrium asset prices when there is uncertainty about both the first and second moments of consumption and dividend growth rates. For the 1891-2007 period, our model generates a sizable average annual equity premium,...

We examine the effects of parameter uncertainty and Bayesian learning on equilibrium asset prices when all the structural parameters of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rate processes are unknown. With realistic calibration of a parsimonious set of prior parameters, the model...

We test whether deviations from Nash equilibrium in rent-seeking contests can be explained by the slow convergence of payoff-based learning. We identify and eliminate two sources of noise that slow down learning. The first source of noise is present because each action is evaluated against a...

We consider one-to-one matching problems under two modalities of uncertainty that differ in the way types are assigned to agents. Individuals have preferences over the possible types of the agents from the opposite market side and initially know the "name" but not the "type" of the other...

We consider one-to-one matching problems under two modalities of uncertainty that differ in the way types are assigned to agents. Individuals have preferences over the possible types of the agents from the opposite market side and initially know the “name” but not the ”type” of the other...

One of the main challenges investors have to face is model uncertainty. Typically, the dynamic of the assets is modeled using two parameters: the drift vector and the covariance matrix, which are both uncertain. Since the variance/covariance parameter is assumed to be estimated with a certain...

The variance risk premium represents the compensation paid to index option sellers for the risk of losses following upward movements in realized market return volatility. Common wisdom connects these spikes with elevated uncertainty on economic fundamentals. I incorporate this link within a...

A representative consumer uses Bayes' law to learn about parameters of several models and to construct probabilities with which to perform ongoing model averaging. The arrival of signals induces the consumer to alter his posterior distribution over models and parameters. The consumer's...

The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate...