We conduct a survey and incentivized lab-in-the-field experimental tasks in Tirana, Albania. While the original purpose of our study was to examine whether and how deep parameters such as time and risk preferences affect the intention to migrate, our study was transformed into a natural...

We conduct a survey and incentivized lab-in-the-field experimental tasks in Tirana, Albania. While the original purpose of our study was to examine whether and how deep parameters such as time and risk preferences affect the intention to migrate, our study was transformed into a natural...

This paper applies the dichotomous theory of choice by Zou (2000a) tothe analysis of investmentstrategies and security markets. Issues concerning individualoptimality, (approximate) arbitrage,capital market equilibrium, and Pareto efficiency are studied undervarious market conditions. Among the...

We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model incorporates volatility uncertainty. With a standard probabilistic model, essential equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is a folk theorem, see...

We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model is given by a set of possible mutually singular probability measures. With a single probability model, essential equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale...

The aim of this contribution is to revisit, clarify and complete the picture of uncertainty estimates in the chain-ladder (CL) claims reserving method. Therefore, we consider the conditional mean square error of prediction (MSEP) of the total prediction uncertainty (using Mack's formula) and the...

We introduce a category that represents varying risk as well as uncertainty, and give a generalized conditional expectation as a contravariant functor on the category. Then, we reformulate dynamic monetary value measures as a contravariant functor on the category. We show some axioms of dynamic...

This study investigates the real options with spatial analysis in China's real estate markets. We employ new detailed macro-level data set for 31 provinces in China to test the central predictions of real options with respect to land development. We extended the real options method with spatial...

Maximising expected value is the classic doctrine in choice theory under empirical uncertainty, and a prominent proposal in the emerging literature on normative uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty about the standard of evaluation. But how should Expectationalism be stated in general, when we can face...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...