This paper presents a mathematical model to evaluate the risks of arbitration in contractual disputes to decide whether or not to raise an arbitration case for a claim. It adds the ingredient of a regret theory approach for taking that decision, if an amicable settlement amount is not agreed....

There is nothing like a market crash to focus the mind on the importance of risk management and, more specifically, tail risk management. Because tail events are generally systemic in nature and are characterised by elevated correlations and liquidity squeezes, effective tail risk management is...

This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The contributions of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, we propose a model that unifies the dynamics of...

An extensive list of risks relative to big data frameworks and their use through models of artificial intelligence is provided along with measurements and implementable solutions. Bias, interpretability and ethics are studied in depth, with several interpretations from the point of view of...

Goal: ISO 31000 Risk Management (RM) recently re-defined risk as the effect of uncertainty on an organization's ability to meet the objectives. Earlier, it defined risk as a combination of the probability and scope of the (predicted) consequences. The revised ISO Risk advances beyond a static...

To avert the impending global Cyber-Finance Insurance Crisis based upon large-scale commercial reliance upon quantitative models with inherent model risks, tail risks, and systemic risks in current form, this post-doctoral thesis makes the following key contributions: Develops the first known...

[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on...

In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...

Based on the Partial Distribution (Feng Dai, 2001), a new model to price an asset (MPA) is given. Going a step further, this paper puts forward the Multivariate Partial Distribution (MPD) for the first time. By use of MPD, we could gain a new kind of model for pricing the group assets (MPGA), in...

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners have advocated wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value- at-Risk (VaR) models in order to minimize risk failures. Despite its limitations, the Bayesian methodology has significant advantages. Just...