This paper proposes a theoretical framework for studying the invention of new products when demand is uncertain. In this framework, under general conditions, the threat of ex post entry by a competitor can deter invention ex ante. Asymmetric market power in the ex post market exacerbates the...

In a controlled laboratory experiment we use one sample of students and one of mature individuals participating in an executive education entrepreneurship seminar to examine how positive skew influences risky choices. Both groups are found to respond positively to skew. We estimate decision...

In a game-theoretic model where agents compete for claims to a consumption stream, we characterize how creative destruction affects risk, wealth, and prices. Overinvestment not only imposes excessive disruption risk on existing assets and higher technological uncertainty, it also increases the...

How does cost uncertainty affect the welfare consequences of an oligopoly? To answer this question, we investigate a Cournot oligopoly in which firms produce a homogeneous commodity and market entry is feasible. Marginal costs are unknown ex-ante, i.e. prior to entering the market. They become...

We study a two-stage R&D project with an abandonment option. Two types of uncertainty influence the decision to start R&D. Demand uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a proportional increase and decrease in demand. Technical uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a decrease and...

What is the policy uncertainty surrounding expiring taxes? How uncertain are the approvals of routine extensions of temporary tax policies? To answer these questions, I use event studies to measure cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for firms that claimed the U.S. research and development (R&D)...

We study a model of dynamic two-stage R&D competition where the competing firms are uncertain about the difficulty of the first stage. Staying in the competition is costly and a firm can also choose whether and when to quit. When a firm solves the first stage, it can choose whether and when to...