We extract a global factor from cross-country output growth since 1960. We find that the fluctuations of the global factor are typically small, with the annualized unconditional volatility estimated at 0.06%, but highly persistent, with estimated persistence at 0.98. Evidence of time variation...

We propose a Markov Switching Graphical Seemingly Unrelated Regression (MS-GSUR) model to investigate time-varying systemic risk based on a range of multi-factor asset pricing models. Methodologically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which latent states are identified on...

We investigate empirically how industrialized countries and U.S. states share consumption risk at horizons between one and thirty years. U.S. federal states share about 50 percent of their permanent idiosyncratic risk through cross-state capital income flows. While insurance against transitory...

The unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses during the COVID-19 crisis have increased uncertainty about inflation. During crises periods, the strength of the transmission of inflation uncertainty shocks from one country to another tends to intensify. This paper examines empirical...