Post great financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, there has been a surge in the macroeconomics literature on aggregate uncertainty. Although the recent literature has recognized adverse real effects of global uncertainty shocks in EMEs, the role of monetary policy in mitigating these effects is...

By the end of 2020, the European Central Bank (ECB) will present the results of its monetary policy strategy review. What changes are to be expected and what changes are needed? This report covers two areas of the strategy review. First, alternatives to the current definition of price stability...

In New Keynesian models favourable cost-push shocks lower inflation and increase output. Yet, when the central bank's inflation target is not perfectly observed these shocks turn contractionary as agents erroneously perceive a temporary reduction in the target. This effect is amplified when...

This paper offers several contributions to actual research and discussion on monetary policy. It clarifies the relationship between uncertainty of inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy and discusses the consequences of the recent Blanchard proposal to implement a higher inflation...

Central banks face uncertainty about the true location of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We model optimal discretionary monetary policy during a liquidity trap when the central bank designs policy that is robust with respect to the location of the ELB. If the central...

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of...

We analyze the distributional consequences of uncertainty shocks in the U.S. economy at a business cycle frequency. Our findings reveal that uncertainty shocks have heterogeneous effects across income and wealth distribution. While their impact on income inequality appears marginal when measured...

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...

Should monetary policy be more aggressive or more cautious when facing uncertainty on the relationship between macroeconomic variables? This paper's answer is: “it depends” on the degree of persistence of the shocks that hit the economy. The paper studies optimal monetary policy in a basic...

When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the Federal Reserve Board’s principal New Keynesian...