We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first-order effect on their dynamics. The data...

Corporate and securities laws are seen to mitigate corporate fraud by 'manipulating the incentives of agents': presenting corporate agents with a probability of being caught and punished if they commit fraud. This article suggests that the same laws also affect corporate fraud in a significant...

This paper investigates the effects of dynamic capital market conditions in a general equilibrium model, employing a process of switching steady-state levels of the volatility of market conditions (SS-uncertainty). Decision-makers predict SS-uncertainty regimes using past fundamental shocks, but...

This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...

Models of microeconomic consumption (including those used in heterogeneous-agent macroeconomic models) typically calibrate the size of income risk to match panel data on household income dynamics. But, for several reasons, what is measured as risk from such data may not correspond to the risk...