The dramatic stock market crash of March 2020 was preceded by a prolonged rise in Tobin's Q and a productivity slowdown. Do longer stock market booms and sharper corrections reflect structural changes in the US economy? We address this question about Q by estimating an endogenous growth model...

This paper studies fiscal policy design in an economy in which (i) the representative household has recursive preferences, and (ii) growth is endogenously sustained through innovations whose market value depends on the tax system. By reallocating tax distortions through debt, fiscal policy...

We revisit the evidence on real effects of uncertainty shocks in the context of interest rate uncertainty, which can be hedged in the swap market. We document that adverse movements in interest rate uncertainty predict significant slowdowns in real activity, at the aggregate and at the...

How much safety and liquidity can the US government provide? Should it accommodate demand for these attributes because high convenience yields in Treasuries lower its cost of borrowing? We evaluate a novel fiscal risk channel limiting the government's capacity to provide such services. Rising...

We develop a theory linking "misallocation," i.e., dispersion in marginal products of capital (MPK), to macroeconomic risk. Dispersion in MPK depends on (i) heterogeneity in firm-level risk premia and (ii) the price of risk, and thus is countercyclical. We document strong empirical support for...