This work casts light upon a pair of restrictions inherent to the basic weighted updating model, which is a generalization of Bayesian updating that allows for biased learning. Relaxing the restrictions allows for the study of individuals who discriminate between observations or who treat...

The particular subject of this paper, is to construct a general framework that can consider and analyse in the same time upside and downside risks. This paper offers a comparative analysis of concept risk measures, we focus on quantile based risk measure (ES and VaR), spectral risk measure and...

Stress testing is used to determine the stability or the resilience of a given financial institution by deliberately submitting. In this paper, we focus on what may lead a bank to fail and how its resilience can be measured. Two families of triggers are analysed: the first stands in the stands...

We explore Knightian model uncertainty as an explanation for the observed excess persistence and attenuation in estimated interest-rate reaction functions for the United States, relative to what optimal feedback rules would suggest. Two types of uncertainty are identified: (i) unstructured model...

The valuation of multi-staged pharmaceutical R&D can be interpreted as a chain of real options. In valuing these compound option models, a crucial problem is how to deal with the different types of risk. Previous models, such as Cassimon et al. (2004), offer a closed-form solution for the...

In his 1999 monograph The Conquest of American Inflation Tom Sargent describes how a policymaker, who applies a constant-gain algorithm in estimating the Phillips curve, can fall into the grip of an induction problem: concluding on the basis of reduced-form evidence that the trade-off between...

This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy. We focus on two types of uncertainty: (i) unstructured model uncertainty reflected in additive...

This paper analyzes the optimality of reactive feedback rules advocated by neo-Keynesians, and constant growth rules proposed by monetarists. The basis for this controversy is not merely a disagreement concerning sources and impacts of uncertainty in the economy, but also an apparent fundamental...

In this paper, I present the implementation of Portfolio Risk Measures in Python 3.5. Several Risk Measures such as VaR, CVaR and MVaR are adopted and different methodologies of computation are showed: Parametric and Historical. The portfolio is dinamical in the sense that each day computes the...

Trade and commerce in financial instruments such as stocks, bonds and contingent claims with the goal of exchanging future cash flows is as old as commerce itself. Commerce would be empty and meaningless without a clear perception of risk, thus the principal questions pertaining to commerce are:...