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Effects of macro uncertainty on mean expectations and subjective uncertainty : evidence from households and professional forecasters
Piccillo, Giulia; Poonpakdee, Poramapa - 2021
Macroeconomic uncertainty affects the subjective distribution of individual expectations. Using four panel datasets, we document the effects of macro uncertainty on the mean expectation (first moment) and subjective uncertainty (second moment) of income forecasts. We find that macro uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012745240
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The Problem of the Divided Majority : Preference Aggregation Under Uncertainty
Granic, Georg D. - 2015
This paper reports on the results of a series of experimental laboratory elections. The novelty of the design allows me to study both coordination failures and coordination efficiency in a repeated-game, divided majority setting. I assess and compare the performance of three voting mechanisms,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032662
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On Risk - Building a Definition
Lemos, Filipe - 2016
This article aims to build through the collection of inputs from prior research, regulatory input and practitioner's experience, a comprehensive definition of risk.Risk is not measurable uncertainty nor volatility. Risk is a three part concept: (1) risk is the potential that events may have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998705
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Risk Sharing Capacity : Markets versus Households
Gersbach, Hans - 2014
We introduce uncertainty in our general equilibrium model with multi-member groups, following the classical state-space approach of Arrow-Debreu. A host of new interesting economic issues emerge. First, risk averse agents can attempt to insure themselves through markets or through mutual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061191
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Pollution Control: When, and How, to be Precautious
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Xepapadeas, Anastasios - Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei (FEEM) - 2011
The precautionary principle (PP) applied to environmental policy stipulates that, in the presence of physical uncertainty, society must take robust preventive action to guard against worst-case outcomes. It follows that the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more aggressive this preventive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009002697
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Competitive insurance market in the presence of ambiguity
Anwar, Sajid; Zheng, Mingli - In: Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 50 (2012) 1, pp. 79-84
Within the context of a competitive insurance market, this paper examines the impact of ambiguity on the behavior of … buyers and sellers. Ambiguity is described through a probability measure on an extended state space that includes extra … ambiguous states. It is shown that if insurers face the same or less ambiguity than their customers, a unique equilibrium exists …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010688101
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Pollution control: When, and how, to be precautious
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Xepapadeas, Anastasios - 2011
The precautionary principle (PP) applied to environmental policy stipulates that, in the presence of physical uncertainty, society must take robust preventive action to guard against worst-case outcomes. It follows that the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more aggressive this preventive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279642
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Mutual Sharing or Insurance? An Experimental Study of Decisions at Various Levels of Uncertainty
Ahmed, Ali M.; Skogh, Göran - Centrum för arbetsmarknadspolitisk forkskning (CAFO), … - 2006
Decision theory assumes that agents making choices assign subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at choices where information on probabilities is obviously absent. Yet, Skogh and Wu (2005) show that risk averse agents may gain by risk sharing also at unknown (and unassigned) probabilities of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190614
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Learning under uncertainty with multiple priors : experimental investigation
Bland, James R.; Rosokha, Yaroslav - In: Journal of risk and uncertainty 62 (2021) 2, pp. 157-176
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012618769
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Deciding to decide: Gender, leadership and risk-taking in groups
Ertac, Seda; Gurdal, Mehmet Y. - In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 83 (2012) 1, pp. 24-30
Being the leader in a group often involves making risky decisions that affect the payoffs of all members, and the decision to take this responsibility in a group is endogenous in many contexts. In this paper, we experimentally study: (1) the willingness of men and women to make risky decisions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010573086