analysis shows that the uncertainty about government preferences does not affect the macroeconomic equilibrium if the fiscal … multiplier is known. In the case of multiplicative uncertainty, uncertain government preferences make fiscal policy more …

indicators to guide monetary policy decisions. However, these gaps are estimated with a large margin of uncertainty, especially … when composed mainly of TFP gaps. Given the high uncertainty of output gap estimates at present, monetary policy should put … of underlying fiscal balances being reasonably robust to output gap uncertainty. …

This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative …

How does uncertainty about economic policy translate into uncertainty about macroeconomic outcomes, in particular … inflation? New measures of consumer inflation uncertainty are compared to the economic and monetary policy uncertainty indices … of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2015). Economic policy uncertainty is most strongly correlated with uncertainty about short …

Reserve has begun to contemplate an increase in the federal funds rate. There is however substantial uncertainty around these … projections. How should this uncertainty affect monetary policy? In many standard models uncertainty has no effect. In this paper … policy when there is uncertainty. In the current context this result implies that a delayed liftoff is optimal. We …