We study the effect of ambiguity on timing decisions. An agent faces a stopping problem with an uncertain stopping payoff and a stochastic time limit. The agent is unsure about the correct model quantifying the uncertainty and seeks to maximize her payoff guarantee over a set of plausible...

The precautionary principle (PP) applied to environmental policy stipulates that, in the presence of physical uncertainty, society must take robust preventive action to guard against worst-case outcomes. It follows that the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more aggressive this preventive...

Heterogeneous beliefs among market participants can lead to questionable speculative trading that goes beyond any risk-sharing motives. We demonstrate that such unwarranted betting behavior in market equilibrium can be mitigated by introducing nonlinear pricing for ambiguous contracts, without...

The precautionary principle (PP) applied to environmental policy stipulates that, in the presence of physical uncertainty, society must take robust preventive action to guard against worst-case outcomes. It follows that the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more aggressive this preventive...

This paper investigates a novel behavioral feature exhibited by recursive preferences: aversion to risks that are persistent through time. I introduce a formal notion of correlation aversion to capture this phenomenon and provide a characterization based on risk attitudes. Furthermore,...

Initiating a conflict is an investment in social, political or economic change. The decision to attack is sequential in time, irreversible and, more important, includes highly uncertain and erratic threats and opportunities yet completely disregarded in conflict theory. In this dynamic model of...

Policy makers must often cope with circumstances where there is no consensual scientific model of the matter under consideration. We formally represent this situation as one of handling a robust optimization problem. This provides a framework to rigorously compare some commonly used approaches...

We present a continuous-time agency model under mean-volatility joint ambiguity uncertainties, where both the principal and agent exhibit Gilboa-Schmeidler's extreme ambiguity aversion. For this, we extend the martingale method well known in the agency literature, by allowing not only the mean...

To analyze the economic significance of pricing errors of stock index options, a system of linear inequalities is developed which completely characterizes all risk arbitrage opportunities which arise if a well-behaved pricing kernel does not exist. The Stochastic Arbitrage system can account for...

This paper studies how the interaction between two types of uncertainty due to ignorance affects strategic consumption-portfolio rules, precautionary savings, and welfare in general equilibrium. We incorporate these two types of uncertainties into a recursive utility version of a canonical...