It takes multiple decades of commitment and credibilityto create repute but only a few seconds to tarnish it, as the instancesof misinformation, disinformation and malinformation galore. Inlight of this, Central banks, as delicate and sensitive public institu-tions, are significantly vulnerable...

As projections have inflation heading back toward target and the labor market continuing to improve, the Federal Reserve has begun to contemplate an increase in the federal funds rate. There is however substantial uncertainty around these projections. How should this uncertainty affect monetary...

Financial networks have shown to be important in understanding systemic events in credit markets. In this paper, we investigate how the structure of those networks can affect the capacity of regulators to assess the level of systemic risk. We introduce a model to compute the individual and...

The paper reports the outcome of the stress-testing of liquidity risk in the TARGET2 payment system, with the study having been conducted by an ad-hoc group composed of operators and overseers of TARGET2. The study aims to assess the resilience of the system, defined as the network of its...

Ten years into the global financial crisis, the euro area is struggling to get back on a path of stability and growth. Leaving aside international factors, many underlying reasons come from within and range from the EMU architectural incompleteness to the reluctance to address some key issues,...

This paper studies the detection of outliers in risk indicators based on large value payment system transaction data. The ten risk indicators are daily time series measuring various risks in the large value payment system, such as operational risk, concentration risk and liquidity flows related...

In line with regulations and common risk management practice, the credit risk of a portfolio is managed via its potential future exposures (PFEs), expected exposures (EEs), and related measures, the expected positive exposure (EPE), effective expected exposure (EEE), and the effective expected...

We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. Within a quantile regression setup, we propose a method to parsimoniously account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks....

This paper analyzes the risks that contemporary banks experience. In particular, the trends that the financial sector has undergone during the last few decades with the introduction of derivatives, universalization of the United States banking industry, and globalization of several operations...

Recent interest in 'Risk Management' has highlighted the relevance of Bayesian analysis for robust monetary-policy making. This paper sets out a comprehensive methodology for designing policy rules inspired by such considerations. We design rules that are robust with respect to model uncertainty...