These days it's become convention (reinforced by the media's treatment of wealth) to assess our net worth by tallying up the market value of our financial assets, even though it's more natural and useful to think of our wealth as a stream of dollars over time given the nature of our income and...

Humans play important roles in the process of quantifying uncertainty. The participation of humans in this important exercise opens the process to behavioral biases. In this paper, we examine the different types of biases that may occur when quantifying uncertainty using a process-oriented...

Goal: ISO 31000 Risk Management (RM) recently re-defined risk as the effect of uncertainty on an organization's ability to meet the objectives. Earlier, it defined risk as a combination of the probability and scope of the (predicted) consequences. The revised ISO Risk advances beyond a static...

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners have advocated wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value- at-Risk (VaR) models in order to minimize risk failures. Despite its limitations, the Bayesian methodology has significant advantages. Just...

In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...

A central maxim in statistics is that correlation does not imply causation, and a lack of correlation does not imply a lack of causation. However, this does not mean that correlation contains no informational content whatsoever for causality. In this paper, I propose a tractable characterisation...

Several recent finance articles employ the Omega measure, proposed by Keating and Shadwick (2002) - defined as a ratio of potential gains out of possible losses - for gauging the performance of funds or active strategies (e.g. Eling and Schuhmacher, 2007; Farinelli and Tibiletti, 2008; Annaert et al., 2009;...

This paper investigates and developed credit risk models. Specifically, it focuses on the Merton model, its extensions model and the way to survey new structural approach. First, this paper describes Merton model. Second, reviews the first-passage model along with more focus on default point....

The importance of risk management increases as farmers become more exposed to risk. But risk management is a difficult topic because income risk is the result of the complex interaction of multiple risk factors combined with the effect of an increasing array of possible risk management tools. In...