Restrictions on the risk-pricing in dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) can unleash the power of no-arbitrage by creating a tighter link between cross-sectional and time-series variation of interest rates. This paper presents a new econometric framework for estimation of affine Gaussian DTSMs...

Deriving an optimal asset allocation for institutional investors hinges crucially on the quality of inputs used in the optimization. If the mean vector and the covariance matrix are known with certainty, the classical mean-variance optimization of Markowitz (1952) produces optimal portfolios....

We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, for a given volatility model. We obtain precise forecasts of the tail of the distribution of returns not only for the 10-days-ahead horizon required by the...