Showing 1 - 10 of 19,067
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
shock proxies on the estimated impulse responses from these SVAR models. We show via a Monte Carlo experiment that … uncertainty shock proxy as an instrument to identify the underlying shock does not suffer from this bias. Applying this proxy SVAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784657
-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628705
Recent events suggest that uncertainty changes play a major role in U.S. labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. Using a vector autoregression approach, we show that uncertainty shocks measured by stock market volatility have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243477
financial executives, belief distortions on financial markets identify a non-rational risk shock. Surprises in beliefs in credit … the constructed shocks have statistically and economically meaningful effects. A positive non-rational risk shock moves …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308197
shock has remained fairly stable. Simulations from a non-linear DSGE model suggest that these empirical results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890
Most of the international macro models, in contrast to the data, imply a very high level of risk sharing across countries and very low real exchange rate (RER) volatility relative to output. In this paper we show that a standard two-country two-good model augmented with conintegrated TFP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962025
assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a latent … consequences jointly, and most are based on single country models. We analyze the special case of a shock restricted to the Euro … for all countries over a period of roughly a year following an uncertainty shock. Moreover, equity prices, short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978764
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013442223