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We examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular TV game show “Deal or No Deal” and related classroom experiments. Contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game. Risk aversion...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348343
decision errors can explain or be highly correlated with hyperbolic discounting and non-linear (inverse-S-shaped) probability … weighting. We find evidence that decision errors are strongly correlated with hyperbolic discounting but do not find that … decision errors are correlated with the strong inverse-S-shaped probability weighting (w(p)) patterns in our two samples. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014581476
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In confidence theory, the decision maker relies on statistical regularities from the economic environment to adopt … prior in Bayesian inference is proportional to the uncertainty related to its distribution, the decision maker arrives at … revised stated probabilities that were used in the evaluation of certainty equivalents. The decision model employed in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061467
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This paper extends decision making under risk and uncertainty to group theory via representations of invariant … in decision theory. Moreover, representations include the special unitary group SU(2) and orthogonal group Θ …-Pauli Hamiltonian to compute, inter alia, time dependent probabilities in decision field theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096459
which probability amplitudes (popularized by quantum decision [field] theory) are computed. This explains the “quantal … preferences are different for the same stimuli because decision weights depend on broken cycles for HPWF. However, our model also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113294
We derive critical values for the violation area in Nth order Almost Stochastic Dominance based on the Nth degree coefficient of relative risk aversion of reasonable utility functions. Our critical values are consistent with existing experimental estimates but apply for a broader range of choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014682
Expected utility theory (EUT) is currently the standard framework which formally defines rational decision-making under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012520657
We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964372