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Constrained discretion and central bank transparency

Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo - 2016

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model to quantitatively assess the effects and welfare implications of central bank transparency. Monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents conduct Bayesian learning about the nature of these deviations. Under...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011560575

Monetary Policy under Data Uncertainty : Interest-Rate Smoothing from a Cross-Country Perspective

Lee, Saiah - 2021

Cross-country estimates of Taylor rules suggest that higher data uncertainty is associated with a more inertial behavior of interest rates. Data uncertainty is measured by the volatility of differences between real-time data and their revisions. Using a simple structural model with Kalman filter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242211

Debt, Policy Uncertainty and Expectations Stabilization

Eusepi, Stefano - 2010

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of … learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations … analysis, the set of policies consistent with macroeconomic stability. Anchoring expectations by communicating about monetary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138712

Self-Fulfilling Inflation Inertia under Model Uncertainty

Kaihatsu, Sohei - 2009

examine a purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve with heterogeneous expectations, where the coordination of … is allowed to vary, there exist multiple equilibria: rational expectations equilibrium without any inertia and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014208104

Initial beliefs uncertainty

Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012632113

Initial beliefs uncertainty and information weighting in the estimation of models with adaptive learning

Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012601834

Effective lower bound risk

Hills, Timothy S.; Nakata, Taisuke; Schmidt, Sebastian - 2019 - This draft: September 2019

Even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today's inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182403

Economic uncertainty and subjective inflation expectations

Rossmann, Tobias - 2019

. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty … exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034114

Monetary Policy Uncertainty in Mexico : An Unsupervised Approach

Moreno, Carlos; Minozzo, Marco - 2022

We study and measure uncertainty in the minutes of the meetings of the board of governors of the Central Bank of Mexico and relate it to monetary policy variables. In particular, we construct two uncertainty indices for the Spanish version of the minutes using unsupervised machine learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076959

Can More Public Information Raise Uncertainty? The International Evidence on Forward Guidance

Ehrmann, Michael - 2019

signals and, as a consequence, may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872234