Defining systematic risk management (SRM) skill as persistently low fund systematic risk, we find evidence of time varying allocation of hedge fund management effort across the business cycle. In weak market states, skilled managers focus on minimization of systematic risk via dynamic...

We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity downside-risk premium (CDP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based CDP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the...

We study how macroeconomic uncertainty (EU) manifests into the cross-sectional variations of the credit default swap (CDS)-bond bases. We develop a structural model in which common EU induces informational friction affecting the pricing in the bond and CDS markets. Higher EU will lead to a...

We show that the cross-autocorrelation also exists in the global CDS markets and develop an econometric model to capture the global correlation structure. We study implications on the credit risk transmission and contagion risk. We find four main results: (i) credit risk transmission is through...