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What do climate change, global financial crises, pandemics, and fragility and conflict have in common? They are all examples of global risks that can cross geographical and generational boundaries and whose mismanagement can reverse gains in development and jeopardize the well-being of...

This paper theoretically assesses the role that uncertainty plays in the intensity of conflicts. The standard two-player rent-seeking contest model (Tullock, 1980) is extended to allow for privately known subjective values of the prize. The conflict is modeled as a Bayesian game on which each...

How do norms evolve to influence behavior over time? The global COVID-19 pandemic introduced immense uncertainty; six months into the pandemic witnessed no foreseeable ending and no available vaccine. Given that people could not quarantine indefinitely, they needed to develop new social norms,...

The study investigates the impact of adverse geopolitical events and investments in energy technology innovations on renewable energy consumption using the newspaper-based geopolitical risk (GPR) index introduced by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022). With the first and most extensive cross-country...

We investigate the international shock propagation of the US quality of political signals (USQPOLS) to developed and emerging economies. We find an immediate rise in the real GDP of the developed economies as a result of a unit shock to USQPOLS. However, the shock effect only becomes significant...

This paper presents a possible solution to financial crises by addressing the core of the problem of systemic risk. To get there, it first illustrates a number of crises related situations before the definition of systemic risk is detailed. It then explains challenges of systemic risk and...

Standard economic theory assumes that individual risk taking decisions are independent from the social context. Recent experimental evidence however shows that the income of peers has a systematic impact on observed degrees of risk aversion. In particular, subjects strive for balance in the...