This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. The model shows that a rise in volatility can decelerate growth in the absence of any level...

This paper combines the Aiyagari/Huggett–type standard incomplete markets model with the Arrow/Romer approach to growth to analyze feedback effects between growth and inequality, both endogenously determined in equilibrium. We derive conditions on existence/ nonexistence of balanced growth...

A feature of last decade’s mortgage crisis was that the credit risk of borrowers was not accurately priced into their mortgages. For example, the increased risk of delinquency was not associated with a higher interest rate. I confirm this belief by using a measure of earnings risk, a major...

In a context of high economic uncertainty, this paper aims to analyse the impacts of uncertainty on income and wealth inequality in the four largest economies of the euro area: Germany, France, Italy and Spain. This is the first study to evaluate this relationship in these countries and the...

We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the...

We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the...

We construct a new Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Spain, building on the influential methodology of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), and compare it with the EPU for Spain that these authors provide. We refine the index in several dimensions: we expand the headline newspaper coverage...

We construct economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indexes for a number of Latin American (LA) economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela) and the region as a whole, based on reports in the Spanish press. Our measures are comparable across countries. We study the...

We construct Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) indexes for a number of Latin American (LA) economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela) and the region as a whole based on the Spanish press. Our measures are comparable across countries. We study the macroeconomic...

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of...